VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS


CLASS
A
PHASE
External mapping
APPLICATION FIELDS
Business strategy
ASSUMPTIONS
The technique must be applied in group. This latter must be heterogeneous, free from inhibitions/restraints and it must include some experts of the topic under discussion.
PROS
The technique does not need specific requirements and, in particular, the working group does not require preliminary training.
CONS
There is no indication of a specific methodology to individuate the business pillars, if excepted a limited range of examples.
DESCRIPTION

The author of the Vulnerability Analysis technique assumes that each kind of business is based on what he calls “pillars”.

The aim of this technique is to individuate the pillars which the company is based on and to analyze the possible actions to be undertaken in response to the events which might damage the individuated pillars. This technique is suited for the Business Strategic Areas (BSA) defined as product-market-technology combination of the company. Each BSA can be destroyed, threatened or damaged by external events on which the company has scarce or no control at all. This technique allows to analyze these pillars and to obtain useful information for the company strategic decisions (e.g. the introduction of electronic cameras led to the extinguishment of the business of the “super 8” cameras and related projectors).

The object of the vulnerability analysis is divided in two groups:

  • Company external factors, which are not under the company control (e.g. resources, some inputs);
  • Restricted competitive system external factors, it is to say those elements from which the company is unable to defend itself, unless recurring to radical innovations.
These are the phases of this technique:

  1. Business pillars identification
    In other words, identification of the elements from which depends the survival and lasting of a sector and of the enterprises acting in it.
  2. Free and unconstrained idea generation on the events which might damage or destroy one or more than one business pillars (see also Brainstorming , idea generation techniques ).
  3. Evaluation of the event occurrence probability and related impact (see also evaluation techniques).
    The attention to be paid on a given threat should be proportional not only to the event occurrence probability but to the multiplication of probability and impact. It is to be avoided the attitude of those business managership, which do not attend to evaluate the impact of an event, when this is considered not likely to occur.
  4. Identification of the actions to be undertaken.
    The actions must be distinguished in actions to be undertaken immediately and actions to be performed only as the threatening event occurs. In fact, the company can react immediately or it can simply plan some actions, waiting for an increase of the threatening event occurrence probability to actually implement their execution.

Even though the technique is subdivided in four phases, it can be noted that the first is predominant in respect to the other ones. In fact, the discriminating part of this technique consists in the pillars analysis. The remaining phases could be implemented also recurring to the other techniques. The vulnerability analysis has been positioned among the techniques for the External Mapping properly according to the weight and relevance given to the first phase. The author individuates 8 pillars typologies and states that when one of these waves it is necessary to innovate. The identification of the pillars is not an easy issue, considering that these are not coincident with the critical success factors of the business.

The pillars classification is as follows:

1)Needs or use functions
Each business satisfies needs that are subjected to evolve in time: often the need to be satisfied has disappeared and companies have not had the skill or the resources to innovate and survive. It is the case of the slide rule, which was used to calculate quickly. The diffusion of the pocket calculators allowed to accomplish the same function in a more effective way. The slide rules companies were forced to accept the decline of their business, since they were unable to engage the competition with the pocket calculators manufacturers.

2)Uses, habits, values
Bertone states that the existence of social values constitutes the pillar of a lot of businesses and therefore he suggests that the related changes analysis is very useful for the innovation of products and services.

Example:
«If the dominant value is consumption, the individual asks himself: “Which of the goods I haven’t got would I like to have?”. On the other hand, when shifting from a consumer attitude to a viewpoint that gives more importance to the experience, the question becomes: “Which of the experiences I never had would I like to have?”.
The consumer manager will be happy to receive as gift a gold fountain pen branded Giugiaro. The experience manager would prefer a trip-coupon, a training course, the subscription to some theatrical shows.» (Bertone, 1993, p.124)

3) Technologies stability
A lot of businesses depend on technology, which can be embedded in the product or in the productive process.
A well known example is given by the mechanic clock market. The coming of electronics caused a strong contraction in the Swiss industry market. In this case the Swiss companies of mechanic clocks found themselves “without pillar” as consequence of the introduction on the market of electronics-based products.
After a decade of crisis, a consortium of Swiss manufacturers (the SMH) was able to offer an innovative answer to the electronic clocks solution: the Swatch, which lifted up again the Swiss clock industry, properly when it seemed to have been beaten by Japanese and Hong Kong manufacturers.

Example:
«Iernst Thomke, one of the Swatch inventors, declared to have aimed to win the price competition. The competitive price depends on the product-process concept. With the help of the designers Elmar Mock and Jacques Mueller, it was invented an innovative mechanism compounded by only 51 elements, it is to say almost half of those used in a traditional electronic clock with quartz mechanism. The clock case, imprinted through microinjection with a synthetic very resistant material, acts also as assembly plate on which the components are fixed by means of welding and ultrasounds. The glass – obviously made in plastic – cannot be replaced and, in addition, the welding system makes the clock waterproof till 30 meters of depth.»I (Bertone, 1993, p.124)

The low cost of manufacturing the product led Swatch to success. The marketing strategy provided a decisive contribution to the consolidation of the Swatch business idea, which detains more than 30% of its market segment, selling almost 10 millions clocks per year.»

4)Inputs and resources
Each business requires resources, also those given as obvious, such as raw materials availability, energy, subsidiary services (mail, phone, security, …) and one of these resources might constitute a business pillar. However, generally the attention of the top management is focused on those resources which have an higher impact on costs structure rather than on those resources which are more critical for the survival of the business. In fact, these latter are not considered relevant, until a problem arises.

5)Niche or market segment
Bertone states that when customers are few the business is very vulnerable and he cites the Piaggio company, which formerly sold 80% of its motorbikes to under 18 years old teenagers. In other words, the company was dependant by a single market segment. The pillars on which the motorbikes business was based were the possibility to drive without using the helmet, without the licence plate and without the driving licence. In particular, the company believed that girls would not have appreciated the use of the helmet, which became compulsory in 1986. At the same time, however, a lot of drivers began to travel by motorbike in order to avoid the city traffic jam, this resulting in new opportunities of expansion for Piaggio.

6)Existent constrains, sanctions, incentives.
The constrains, sanctions and incentives imposed by law restrict the operative space where enterprises can act. It may occur that the competitive advantage of a company would be vanished by some normative modifications. To better understand the matter, two examples are provided below:

Example:
«The pharmaceutical products cannot be sold without the official authorization by the institutions in charge of health surveillance. The authorization is subjected to experimentation periods of over 10 years. This regulation, however, is applied only to the pharmaceutical specialties and it is not extensible to the so called cosmetic products. It should be considered that a more strict regulation of the products offered by the cosmetic companies, requiring a major evidence of the product efficacy or a more rigorous experimentation aimed to ascertain the absence of dangerous “collateral effects”, could seriously threaten the business structure.
Leader companies, such as l'Oreal and Shiseido, will likely be able to adapt to the new context by modifying radically their present approach and structure, which are characterized by marketing expenses reaching even 40% of the revenues.
Instead, minor companies which are characterized by a business approach that can be considered in some way “similar to that of pirates”, would not be able to experiment and guarantee their products quality and therefore they would be doomed to disappear.»
Example:
« In 1988 the European motor market absorbed almost 9 millions of carburettors. This was due to the fact that the major part of the new petrol engine cars were alimented by carburettors and only the high range cars used electronic injection systems.
In the USA the electronic injection system was imposed, with a regulation of 1983, since this was able to dramatically reduce the emissions of harmful stuffs from the car drainpipe. Instead, in Europe the emissions regulation was more tolerant and the imposed limit could be kept also by a carburettor injection system. Therefore, in the USA the injection system was a must, while in Europe it was a plus aimed to the high range cars. In this context, the Italian Weber detained 65% of the European carburettors market, while the German Bosch detained almost the monopoly of the electronic injection systems.
In 1988, as the signals of a reinforcement of the CEE emissions regulations increased, at Weber there was a lot of concern. The company had the know how on electronic injection systems, since it provided this kind of systems, those of road and competition models of Ferrari included. Nevertheless, Weber top management was aware that the quick shift from a carburettors manufacturing to a planning and in large scale manufacturing of electronic injection systems would have caused an huge industrial changeover and the abandon of a product as the carburettor, which was become a cash cow.» (Bertone, 1993)

7)Complementary products and services
The existence of some businesses is based on the availability of complementary products or services. For instance, if tobacco would be prohibited, lighters will be sold no more and Bic, leader in throwaway lighters, could face serious troubles.

8) Alternative products or services cost stability
To explain this pillar the author reports the case of a North American bus service company which was able to link almost every city of USA and that was troubled by the reduction in the prices of air tariffs due to the price war among several air companies.

REFERENCES
  • Bertone V.,Creatività aziendale. Metodi, tecniche; casi per valorizzare il potenziale creativo di manager, imprenditori., Milano, Franco Angeli, 1993.