UNEXPECTED AND CONTRADICTORY EVENTS RESEARCH

The subject of this technique is market analysis, in order to realize ongoing changes. Users have to look for what is considered “imperfect” in the market. Imperfections in some way may become good opportunities from other points of view and strong potential advantages.

Imperfection, being lack of something, distance from something, restlessness, incompleteness, if viewed dynamically is never total, is never all or nothing, but becomes opportunity for change, movement, research, improving boost. [Varvelli, 1995, p.18]

The aim of this technique is to detect inconsistencies, imperfections of markets which make them evolve over time. The most important indicators in order to understand changes are two:

the Unexpected;
the Contradiction.

The Unexpected:
Every event which is not foreseen, or is not part of the normal evolution curve of a certain trend, masks the opportunity for innovation. [Vicari, 1998, p.195]
From this assumption we may understand that a deep event analysis enables to perceive new demands and trends. When we face unexpected events we know that something happened wich deeply modified past trends. From these discontinuities we may get innovation understood as a new combination of not yet modified elements.
Example:
Honda started selling high-powered motorbikes on the US market. Soon they acknowledged their mistake and turned to mopeds and won over 60% market share in very few years. The unexpected element was that everywhere the three Japanese managers went in order to explore US market opportunities, they found out that people were more interested to the mopeds the managers themselves where using than to the high-powered motorbikes they were trying to sell. Their mistake was to think they could compete with American motorcycle industry on the same ground where it was stronger. Anyway, chance had a hand in the matter: the skill of the Japanese management was to use a fortuitous event (that is, riding mopeds for personal use) and completely modify the initial strategy, according to the new situation created by chance. They turned into selling small mopeds which had great success. [Vicari, 1998]
The Contradiction
Contradiction can be defined as an incoherence between phenomena which, according to our own knowledge and perspective, should be suitable instead.

Contradiction is a precious source of innovation for two reasons:

every contradiction suddenly rising conceals the necessity of an adjustment;
contradictions are the result of a single point of view. [Vicari, 1998]

In the first case the contradiction rising inside a system can be interpreted as a suggestion that good functioning may be compromised if the system is not modified. Contradictions which show themselves as events not consistent to expectations, say that the system may be running correctly if malfunctions are handled in good time.

Example:
Contradiction is the rise in hospitalization costs following a surgical operation. The improvement in public health should bring about a general cost reduction, not a rise. On the contrary, surgical costs go on growing (because of new technologies used in operations). A solution to this 'contradiction' (improvement in public health and rise in medical costs) was the development of day surgery, that is surgery which needs no hospitalization for patients and brings about substantial cost reduction. [Vicari, 1998]

The presence of contradictions in a systems shows that remedy and innovation are needed in order to take the system back to good functioning.

In the second case, contradiction is meant as the result of a given point of view. Connecting the opposites, making consistent in real terms what seems inconsistent, is the meaning of creativity. The author asserts that contraposition between opposite elements does not really exist in real world, or rather it is function of a single point of view. But there is at least one other point which enables the viewer to see two phenomena as wholly compatible, even though still different and conflictual.

CLASS	A
PHASE	External Mapping
APPLICATION FIELDS	Strategic Planning, Product Development
ASSUMPTIONS	This technique has no requirements.
PROS	Users develop a critical ability in order to notice all the “imperfections” that are present in their company’s market.
CONS	The author does not suggest steps for finding out opportunities but gives a general treatment of his technique, suitable for any function in the firm.
DESCRIPTION	The subject of this technique is market analysis, in order to realize ongoing changes. Users have to look for what is considered “imperfect” in the market. Imperfections in some way may become good opportunities from other points of view and strong potential advantages. Imperfection, being lack of something, distance from something, restlessness, incompleteness, if viewed dynamically is never total, is never all or nothing, but becomes opportunity for change, movement, research, improving boost. [Varvelli, 1995, p.18] The aim of this technique is to detect inconsistencies, imperfections of markets which make them evolve over time. The most important indicators in order to understand changes are two: the Unexpected; the Contradiction. The Unexpected: Every event which is not foreseen, or is not part of the normal evolution curve of a certain trend, masks the opportunity for innovation. [Vicari, 1998, p.195] From this assumption we may understand that a deep event analysis enables to perceive new demands and trends. When we face unexpected events we know that something happened wich deeply modified past trends. From these discontinuities we may get innovation understood as a new combination of not yet modified elements. Example: Honda started selling high-powered motorbikes on the US market. Soon they acknowledged their mistake and turned to mopeds and won over 60% market share in very few years. The unexpected element was that everywhere the three Japanese managers went in order to explore US market opportunities, they found out that people were more interested to the mopeds the managers themselves where using than to the high-powered motorbikes they were trying to sell. Their mistake was to think they could compete with American motorcycle industry on the same ground where it was stronger. Anyway, chance had a hand in the matter: the skill of the Japanese management was to use a fortuitous event (that is, riding mopeds for personal use) and completely modify the initial strategy, according to the new situation created by chance. They turned into selling small mopeds which had great success. [Vicari, 1998] The Contradiction Contradiction can be defined as an incoherence between phenomena which, according to our own knowledge and perspective, should be suitable instead. Contradiction is a precious source of innovation for two reasons: every contradiction suddenly rising conceals the necessity of an adjustment; contradictions are the result of a single point of view. [Vicari, 1998] In the first case the contradiction rising inside a system can be interpreted as a suggestion that good functioning may be compromised if the system is not modified. Contradictions which show themselves as events not consistent to expectations, say that the system may be running correctly if malfunctions are handled in good time. Example: Contradiction is the rise in hospitalization costs following a surgical operation. The improvement in public health should bring about a general cost reduction, not a rise. On the contrary, surgical costs go on growing (because of new technologies used in operations). A solution to this 'contradiction' (improvement in public health and rise in medical costs) was the development of day surgery, that is surgery which needs no hospitalization for patients and brings about substantial cost reduction. [Vicari, 1998] The presence of contradictions in a systems shows that remedy and innovation are needed in order to take the system back to good functioning. In the second case, contradiction is meant as the result of a given point of view. Connecting the opposites, making consistent in real terms what seems inconsistent, is the meaning of creativity. The author asserts that contraposition between opposite elements does not really exist in real world, or rather it is function of a single point of view. But there is at least one other point which enables the viewer to see two phenomena as wholly compatible, even though still different and conflictual.
REFERENCES	Vicari Salvatore, La creatività dell’impresa, Etas Libri, Milano, 1998