CAUSAL ANALYSIS


CLASS
B
PHASE
External mapping , internal mapping
DESCRIPTION

You often need to review your approach to any given problem, until you get to its very core. To this purpose, Michel Joly (1993) suggests two techniques: Crossed Segmentation and Causal Analysis .

Causal Analysis belongs to external mapping (see the author’s example in “Idee che rendono…come trovarle”) though it might be used in internal mapping, as well.


“Someone calls it “epistemological method”… Causal analysis tries to define a given problem, to let it breath and to address the very origin of things, even through hypothesis. The bold effort involved by this method often gives successful outcomes: the problem appears in its entirety, together with its related solutions.

Example 1: The ice block story

An oil production and distribution company was looking for something to propose to car drivers. So, the company members examined car drivers’ problems and tried to work out a product to solve them. Winter was approaching and soon snow lovers would leave for a week’s skiing holiday. The company managers thought about car drivers who are not used to cold. They would leave the city and finally get to the mountain resort at dusk, with their folks. A few miles before arriving, they would slip on an ice block, smash against a rail and begin their snow holiday in a freezing luxurious hotel, having to pay for an unexpected accident.

The real problem was how to prevent a car from skidding on the ice.
Why does it skid? Because the rubber friction coefficient on the ice is low. Why is it low? Many would answer that ice is smooth. Is it true that a smooth surface has a low friction coefficient?

You realize that it is not true if you place a sheet of paper on an upright glass and remove the air between the two: your sheet does not drop or comes off only after a while.
Therefore there must be another reason. Why then two surfaces supposed to have a high friction coefficient could spoil our poor driver’s holiday?
A group of technicians was confronted with this issue; some of them stated that there was something between the rubber and the ice, maybe some water. Why water? Where might it come from?
What about hot rubber? Indeed, it is hot but it comes into contact with the ice only for a short while, therefore it cannot melt the ice crust.
What about rubber friction? Cars skid even when they are standing…
How about the tyre pressure on the ice? It is true; ice melts under a certain pressure, even at 5 or 6 degrees below zero.
Which is the tyre pressure on the ground? It is about 2 bars (pumping pressure). Is it enough to melt the ice straight away (adiabatic melting, id. without heat transfer)? Experts say no.
What then? The water hypothesis was not odd at all. Do such pressures really exist? After all, pressure results from a mass applied to a surface.
What about the contact surface between the tyre and the ground? A careful test proved that the tyre gets worn on the road and has more or less evident harms (shellings, scratches, furrows). The contact does not take place on a huge surface; on the contrary it is scattered within an apparent contact surface with the ground or the ice. So, the car weight rests on a few contact points, thus putting a pressure that is much bigger than 2 bars, id. over the adiabatic limit. The ice placed on the contact points melts under the wheels pressure. The car begins to skid, the pressure pushes a bit further, ice melts and the car cannot stop.
So, if it works like this, how can you remove irregularities and make the surface smooth?
Obviously, you do not need to always adjust tyres, otherwise they would get spoiled in a short time.
What about filling holes? With what then?
By dint of thinking, they generated the following idea: they covered rubber with a kind of foam, so they created an undamaged contact surface for the ice crust. In this way, they reduced peak pressure and without peak temperature ice did not melt any longer.
This product can now be found in aerosol cans; drivers that leave for skiing resorts can buy it before smashing against a rail on a freezing road. However, the foam layer fades away and needs to be rebuilt…
Brilliant, isn’t it? Our grandmothers wore their woollen tights on their shoes, thus filling any holes and increasing the real contact surface between their feet and the ice crust. As a result, they did not risk breaking their legs so much.” (Joly, 1993)


[Source: www.mycoted.com]

CORRELATE TECHNIQUES
REFERENCES
  • Joly M., Des idées qui repportent... ca se trouve! Démystifier la créativité industrielle, Paris, Les Éditions d'Organisation, 1992 .